Forecast Origin Dates
Left panel: Predicted probabilities of Pacific hake occurrence for August 2021 over the J-SCOPE model domain. Forecast locations in red indicate more favorable habitat for Pacific hake, whereas areas in blue indicate less favorable habitat. The forecast indicates that the most suitable habitat for hake is in areas with bottom depths of 200—300 meters.
Right panel: Uncertainty associated with the Pacific hake forecast for August 2021. Forecast uncertainty is higher in locations with brighter colors (yellow) and lower for darker locations (dark blue). Uncertainty tended to be highest in areas just inshore and just offshore of the 200 meter shelf break.
Forecasts are generated using three-member ensemble forecasts of ocean temperature and two-member ensemble averages of the top performing individual statistical forecasting models. Historical analyses (2009 to 2019) indicated the ensemble model has considerable skill in forecasting hake occurrence with an average annual area under the curve (AUC) value of 0.85, where the AUC ranges from 0 to 1 with values near 1 indicating higher skill and a value of 0.5 indicating the model performs no better than a coin toss.
Details of methods used to produce forecasts can be found in the peer-reviewed journal article: Malick, M.J. et al. (2020) Environmentally Driven Seasonal Forecasts of Pacific Hake Distribution. Frontiers in Marine Science. Article #578490. Available at: https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2020.578490